The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of May 16, 2022
Finland and Sweden in NATO: The Final Decision Has Been Made?
As reported by Reuters on May 18, Sweden and Finland have formally submitted applications to join the NATO military alliance. According to officials, ratification of their membership by all member states of the Alliance might take up to a year. Turkey has already expressed its dissent in response to this move. (Reuters)
Take 1: Sweden and Finland have made a historic decision in choosing to break their long standing “non-alignment” policies. Ever since the end of the Cold War three decades ago, the Arctic has experienced a period of relative peace. The warming of international relations after the USSR collapse through the emergence of the Arctic Council and cooperation in non-military areas has made a significant contribution to the stability of the region. The power balance between Western and Russian interests have always been a crucial factor for Arctic neutrality. But now, Sweden and Finland risk permanently destabilizing this balance by abandoning their neutral status. NATO’s Nordic expansion will have long-term security implications, and is likely to alter Russia’s stance on the Arctic. It is likely that topics of defense and security will define Arctic geopolitics in the future if Russia believes its neighboring Arctic governments to be unified in an anti-Russian alliance. Russia will no longer argue that its militarisation of the Arctic is down to activities like shipping lane protection and rescue operations. Moreover, Finland and Sweden’s move could lead to powerful domestic narratives about Arctic intrusions as demanding greater Russian fortification of the region. Despite the Russian government’s claim that these countries do not pose a threat to Russia as part of NATO, the expansion of military infrastructure in their territories will certainly cause a response. It is important to understand that the Arctic’s status as a region of low tension will soon become a thing of the past. (Financial Times, The National Interest)
Hope for Narwhals: Baffinland Mine Expansion Plan Blocked
As reported by The Guardian on May 16, the Nunavut Impact Review Board has blocked expansion plans in the Canadian Arctic by the Baffinland Iron Mines Corp on environmental grounds. The mine expansion project in Nunavut could cause negative effects on the local marine environment, including narwhals, according to the board’s statement. (The Guardian)
Take 2: This news will come as a relief both for the conservationists working to protect the declining narwhal population in the area, and the Inuit who rely on them for their livelihood. Constant low-level noise is an inevitable byproduct of mining operations. But this disruption drives away narwhals, who are incredibly sensitive to anthropogenic noise because it interferes with their own signals necessary for hunting. Narwhal numbers in Nunavut’s Eclipse Sound waterway have declined dramatically in the last 25 years at the same time as vessel traffic in the Canadian Arctic has tripled. Increasing industrial exploitation of the Arctic is also a threat to Indigenous communities. Since many communities rely on local wildlife for their diet, these activities also pose a threat to the food security and well-being of Indigenous inhabitants. Food insecurity is already highly prevalent in Canada’s northern areas – facing 16.9% of the Yukon, 21.6 % of the Northwest Territories, and 57 % of Nunavut’s population. While miners are concerned about the financial losses of this decision, they also should be conscious that the consequences for species, land usage, and food security cannot be compensated with money. (Canada’s National Observer, CBC, Mining.com)
The U.S. Military Is Getting Ready for an Arctic Future
As reported by High North News on May 16, the U.S. Army of Alaska will be rebranded by the Department of Defense as the 11th Airborne Division this summer, making it the first Arctic-specific operational division and the first time the 11th division has been active since 1965. Chief of Staff of the Army, James McConville, explains that the redesignation is largely about giving the Alaskan Army a clear Arctic identity. (High North News)
Take 3: The rift in relations triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine paves a way for a slew of future issues that are currently unknown. Preparations to assist northern European allies are therefore needed, particularly under Sweden and Finland’s pending NATO membership The U.S. expanding its Arctic military capabilities is a good example. The reorganization is also an example of the Army’s first-ever Arctic Strategy in action, a plan unveiled in March 2021 to upgrade defense in the face of intensifying geopolitical changes in the region. Despite Russia’s expanding military presence in the Arctic, the U.S. has previously sought to oppose attempts to militarize the region. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that this is no longer possible given what is happening in Ukraine. (CBC, High North News, The New York Times, The Polar Connection)
Russian Nornickel Intends to Dig Deeper into Vast Kola Nickel Reserve
As reported by The Barents Observer on May 18, Russian mining company Nornickel, the world’s largest nickel producer, is intending to excavate 300 meters deeper into its Severny-Globoky mine in the Kola Peninsula. It is planning to expand this underground mine in order to maintain ore production at the current level and meet future demand. The company is not currently subject to international sanctions. (The Barents Observer)
Take 4: Mining-related activities in the Arctic have significant socioeconomic and environmental consequences. While the region is rich in rare minerals and constantly attracts diverse mining companies, Nornickel’s activities deserve special attention. In 2020, an accident at one of its storage facilities in Norilsk caused the spill of over 20 000 tons of diesel oil, leading to the largest–ever ecological disaster in the Arctic. Nornickel also fails to respect the Indigenous lands its extractive activities take place on. Nevertheless, Russia’s economic turn to the East alongside rising demand for electric vehicles in the West shows that the company is not planning to cut operations, but accelerate them. Europe still needs Russian ore to meet its climate goals, making it unlikely that sanctions will be imposed. Thus, business with Nornickel will continue, all the while the company’s activities continue to pollute the Russian Arctic and threaten its inhabitants’ survival. (Inside Climate News, The Wall Street Journal)
Saving the Arctic Ice with Glass: Is It a Promising Option?
As reported by Anchorage Daily News on May 17, several organizations representing Alaska native communities have expressed official concern over an initiative to protect the Arctic ice sheet with tiny reflective glass beads as part of the non-profit Arctic Ice Project. In a letter to the Arctic Ice Project, the coalition raises concerns about the beads’ impact on the Arctic wildlife and inhabitants and lack of consultations with local Indigenous groups. (Anchorage Daily News)
Take 5: Arctic sea ice functions as a gigantic umbrella for the earth, keeping the air and seas cold.while reflecting the sun’s rays back into space. However, as global temperatures continue to rise, this ice is becoming thinner and less light-reflective. Researchers and scientists are therefore looking for possible solutions to slow down further heating. At first glance, the idea to cover ice with silica microspheres looks promising. However, since anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions show no sign of slowing down, the intervention may not be enough to prevent Arctic warming and ice loss. It is critical to focus on the root of the problem rather than its repercussions. Since all geoengineering involves tampering with global processes, the project also carries potential risks. Even if it is successful in the short-term, it may cause negative changes in weather patterns throughout the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere down the line, not to mention the dangers to the environment and Arctic residents the Indigenous organizations have brought up. All parties potentially affected by the initiative need to be recognised at every stage of the project, from research to implementation. Consultations and collaboration with governmental and environmental organizations, as well as Indigenous communities, are essential. (CBC, WIRED)