The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of May 30, 2022
Russia Tests Hypersonic Missile at Sea
As reported by Reuters on May 28, the Russian Ministry of Defence has disclosed that they have successfully test-launched a hypersonic Zircon cruise missile, which can travel at nine times the speed of sound. The missile was fired from a guided missile frigate in the Barents Sea and travelled over 1,000 kilometers to hit a target in the White Sea. The successful launch is the latest in a series of Zircon tests from naval vessels that have been conducted in the past year. (Reuters)
Take 1: Russia’s increasing militarization of the High North is a significant issue for NATO and the other Arctic states. Even so, the successful test of the Zircon hypersonic missile is especially concerning and threatens to greatly destabilize the region. Hypersonic missiles are part of a new generation of arms systems, which could affect the balance of military capabilities in the Arctic. Due to incredibly fast speeds, long ranges, and high manoeuvrability, hypersonic weapons are difficult to counter using traditional missile defense systems. As a result, Russian hypersonic missiles will likely be able to hit targets in large areas of the Arctic, placing many NATO military installations and critical sea lanes at risk. In response to this growing insecurity, NATO seems set to intensify its military activity, further increasing instability and uncertainty. The future entry of Sweden and Finland will increase the concentration of NATO forces in the region, and countries may strengthen efforts to develop their own advanced weapons systems. However, these actions would not only increase the possibility of military confrontation but could also further harm opportunities for essential scientific and environmental work in the Arctic. Thus, as security concerns continue to rise, it is important for nations to remain committed to their common goals for the Arctic, including environmental protection, the welfare of Indigenous peoples, and multilateral cooperation. (BBC, Center for Strategic and International Studies, The Barents Observer)
Healthcare, Housing, and Outbreak in the Canadian Arctic
As reported by The Guardian on May 30, officials in the Territory of Nunavut have announced that there is an outbreak of tuberculosis in the hamlet of Pangnirtung. The hamlet, which has 1,500 residents, has so far recorded 31 cases of active tuberculosis and 108 cases of latent tuberculosis in the community. Tuberculosis is a bacterial infection that usually affects the lungs, and the current outbreak in the territory is the worst since 2017. Although the Government of Nunavut spends about C$10 million on tuberculosis treatment annually, territorial officials say that more is needed to eradicate the disease. (The Guardian)
Take 2: Access to healthcare is a critical issue for communities throughout the circumpolar North; however, infectious diseases are especially concerning for the Canadian Arctic. Indigenous communities are often located in remote areas with limited road connections and harsh weather conditions. It is difficult for healthcare services to reach these communities, and insufficient resources have resulted in underdeveloped medical infrastructure. The lack of adequate healthcare hinders the prevention and treatment of diseases, making Indigenous communities highly susceptible to outbreaks, including tuberculosis, H1N1, and most recently, COVID-19. Inuit communities in Northern Canada are especially vulnerable due to a severe housing crisis worsened by melting permafrost and climate change. The lack of space and shortage of housing has led many to live in shelters or overcrowded conditions. The recent outbreak of tuberculosis in Nunavut i lays bare the dangerous living conditions facilitating the spread of disease in many Indigenous communities. Moreover, the outbreak reveals the significant health disparities between Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples, with the Public Health Agency of Canada finding that the rate of tuberculosis is 290 times higher among Inuit. While nations continue to recover from the pandemic, illnesses remain a high risk to Indigenous communities. Therefore, it is essential that governments provide more resources to strengthen historically disadvantaged medical infrastructure and address other determinants of health such as housing, sanitation services, and food insecurity. (Aljazeera, Bloomberg, Public Health Agency of Canada)
More EU Sanctions Against Russia: the End of Russian Arctic Oil and Gas?
As reported by the Barents Observer on June 1, the European Union has approved the sixth package of sanctions against Russia at the European Council meeting on May 30,primarily targeting the Russian oil industry. Russian crude oil exports and petroleum products will be prohibited from entering the EU by the end of 2022. However, a temporary exemption will allow crude oil to continue to be delivered by pipeline. (The Barents Observer)
Take 3: Climate change and the melting ice in the Arctic have opened opportunities for navigation and resource exploration. In particular, increased access to oil and natural gas reserves is a core aspect of Russia’s Arctic strategy, with Russia intending to develop the region as a strategic resource base. To achieve these ambitions, Russia has worked to transform the Arctic by investing heavily in energy and transportation infrastructure, especially along the Northern Sea Route. However, EU sanctions on technology have contributed to major setbacks, and the increasingly difficult business environment has led many foreign corporations to terminate their contracts. Russian Arctic projects heavily depend on foreign technology as Russia itself lacks the expertise to manufacture advanced technical components such as modules for icebreakers and LNG plants. The sanctions are therefore severe obstacles to Russia’s planned regional development. In addition to the negative economic impacts, the delays to the infrastructure development and the banning of shipments to the critical EU market have important security implications. Revenue from the Arctic projects would have allowed Russia to continue to invest in its defense capabilities and military operations in the Arctic. Without the necessary infrastructure and development of the NSR, Russia may no longer be able to sustain its increasing militarization in the region. (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, European Council, High North News, The Barents Observer)
Scientists Predict Major Losses of the Siberian Tundra Due to Climate Change
As reported by DW News on June 1, scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute have predicted that significant parts of the Siberian tundra will be lost due to rising temperatures in the Arctic. Using computer modelling, researchers found that under the most likely climate change scenarios, the advancing treeline could reduce the Siberian tundra to 6% of its current size by 2500. The use of strong climate mitigation strategies could preserve about 30% or more of the tundra. (DW News)
Take 4: Rising temperatures are a major issue for the Arctic. With the region warming three times faster than the rest of the world, the Arctic’s unique ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Like the erosion of Arctic sea ice, the deterioration of the tundra contributes to habitat loss and disruptions in the food chain, which severely threatens the Arctic’s indigenous species, including polar bears, foxes, and plants. Moreover, the loss of the Siberian tundra is especially concerning as the tundra biome is largely composed of permafrost. As perennially frozen ground, permafrost contains considerable amounts of carbon. The warming of the Siberian tundra risks thawing this permafrost, releasing the carbon stored and further driving global heating. It is clear that preserving Arctic ecosystems such as the Siberian tundra is essential in protecting the Arctic’s wildlife and preventing permafrost thaw. Although researchers estimate ambitious climate strategies would still result in significant losses of the Siberian tundra, protecting large areas would reduce the amount of emissions from permafrost thaw and allow tundra species to survive. As a result, the circumpolar states should develop local strategies to mitigate climate impacts on Arctic tundras and pursue more robust international climate protection policies to address the root cause of rising temperatures. (Nature, Smithsonian Magazine, The Guardian)
Russia Ready For Talks: The Return of the Arctic Council?
As reported by High North News on June 1, the Russian Ambassador at Large for the Arctic Cooperation, Nikolay Korchunov, announced in a press conference on May 27 that Russia is ready to resume dialogue with the other members of the Arctic Council. The activities of the Arctic Council have been suspended since March following the invasion of Ukraine, but the ambassador commented that Russia remains committed to collective solutions for the Arctic and that the Arctic Council should resume its operations as soon as possible. (High North News)
Take 5: As the current chair, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine undermined the Arctic Council’s core principles of cooperation and trust. The pausing of the Arctic Council has harmed cooperation and coordination among Arctic states, Indigenous communities, and other Arctic inhabitants. The announcement by the ambassador is an important step toward ending the pause of the Arctic council, especially since officials from the other Arctic states have recently reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining the Arctic Council as the premier forum for Arctic cooperation. While tensions and obstacles remain, resuming the activities of the Arctic Council is essential for Arctic states to effectively address critical issues in the region. However, military developments such as the invasion of Ukraine, possible Finnish and Swedish NATO membership, and increased military activity will all impact cooperation within the Arctic Council. Militarization and the strengthening of Arctic defense capabilities could divert resources away from development initiatives, sustainability measures and environmental protection. Such changes would have direct consequences for the welfare of Arctic inhabitants and ecosystems. To maintain peace and achieve their common goals for the region, Arctic states should continue their diplomatic efforts to repair relations and resume the vital work of the Arctic Council. (Arctic Council, Eye on the Arctic, Foreign Policy)