The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of October 19, 2020
Sweden Re-Establishes Northern Regiment
On October 17, the Independent Barents Observer reported that Sweden’s remarkable new defense bill includes the re-establishment of five cold-war era regiments, including the Norrland Dragoon Regiment in Arvidsjaur, just south of the Arctic Circle. The bill notes increased Russian military presence in the Arctic, along Russia’s western border, and threatened retaliation for Swedish and Finnish cooperation with NATO. It also includes a requirement that the Armed Forces study means to strengthen their presence in Northern Sweden. Overall, it aims to increase positions in the armed forces by 50% by 2025, from 60,000 to 90,000. All branches of Sweden’s military will be expanded, and the Swedish Defense Minister says that the bill “represents the largest increase in the level of ambition in defense capabilities in 70 years.” (Independent Barents Observer)
Take 1: This is not a normal defense bill. It represents a huge increase in military spending of the sort not seen since the Cold War, and recognition by the Swedish government of a deteriorating security situation in Scandinavia, particularly as it relates to Russia. It comes on the heels of a new Arctic Strategy published by the Swedish Government on September 24, which also marked a departure from Sweden’s idea of the Arctic as a conflict-free and stable zone. The Arctic-relevant components of this plan and comments by the Defense Minister suggest that readiness to provide support to Finland in the event of conflict with Russia is of priority. This is part of a recent surge in Scandinavian military engagement, globally and in the Arctic. Two weeks ago, the Defense Ministers of Norway, Sweden and Finland met in an Arctic military base to sign a nordic defense cooperation agreement, and on October 16, the Norwegian Defense Minister announced a long-term revised plan for the Norwegian defense sector.
Chinese Company’s Bid to Buy Canadian Gold Mine Faces Federal Security Review
On October 15, the Canadian Federal Government ordered a national security review of Shangdong Gold Mining Co. Ltd.’s plan to buy TMAC, a Canadian mining company that owns the Hope Bay gold mine in the Canadian Arctic. The C$230 million bid was announced in May, approved by TMAC shareholders in June, and has been awaiting federal approval since that time. The Hope Bay mining area included in the purchase is close to the Canadian Inside Passage, as well as strategic resources that may become accessible as climate change progresses. (Eye on the Arctic, Northern Miner, Nunatsiaq News, Reuters)
Take 2: North American media, think tanks and policy communities have scrutinized Chinese companies’ strategic purchases of natural resource developments, ports and infrastructure throughout the world since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013. They cite “predatory loans” and “debt diplomacy,” arguing that many investments by Chinese companies reflect Chinese national interest and military ambitions over honest economic development potential. That the Canadian government would call for a federal security review of this purchase is not only a reflection of Hope Bay’s strategic location, but also of Canada and China’s strained relationship in other spheres seeping into Arctic issues, signaling the end of “Arctic Exceptionalism.” In the past week alone, China-Canada relations have visibly deteriorated over issues ranging from Canada’s criticism of human rights abuses in Xinjiang and acceptance of asylum seekers from Hong Kong to the house arrest in China of two Canadian citizens in retaliation for the arrest of Huawei’s top executive in Canada.
Oil Bust Leaves Massive Budget Deficit in Russian Arctic Okrug
On October 19, The Independent Barents Observer reported that the regional governor of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug has approached the federal government for 3.9 billion rubles to cover the Okrug’s budget deficit, which is driven by tanked oil revenues. Historically, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug has been one of the wealthiest regions in Russia relative to its population, with the highest salaries in the country, good public services, and a budget with six times more revenue per capita than its neighbor, Arkhangelsk Oblast. (Independent Barents Observer)
Take 3: This instance illustrates an economic struggle of boom-and-bust oil dependency which is shared across almost all of the populated Arctic, and deserves attention at the highest levels of government. The dilemma faced by Yuri Bezdudny, the regional leader who will be responsible for convincing Moscow that this wealthy region needs its financial support, must be familiar to his counterparts in Norway and Alaska, where low oil prices have also driven budget deficits in 2020. Even with the promise of substantial new federal and military money flowing to the Russian Arctic, it’s likely that the local economies and communities of the North will remain resource-dependent and unstable. This can erode cooperation on science, search and rescue and other alternative engagements that depend on local communities, counter the growing security narrative, and provide alternative avenues for communication and cooperation when primary diplomatic channels are closed or tense. Although oil prices may never fully recover and the detriment of this boom-and-bust dependency is clear, it’s unclear what can replace oil and other extractive industries in the North. What is certain is that for a peaceful North to prosper, Arctic nations need to move away from oil dependency
Sir David Attenborough is set for Sea Trials
On October 21, Reuters reported that Britain’s new polar ship, the Sir David Attenborough, is set to begin sea trials in the Arctic next Wednesday. After a boreal winter and summer in the Arctic, the vessel will head South for an Austral summer in Antarctica, where it will serve UK scientists in the polar regions almost exclusively. (Reuters)
Take 4: This vessel is famous for almost being named “Boaty McBoatface,” after the British government foolishly promised to name it by popular choice. The government reneged, and the vessel was formally named after British naturalist Sir David Attenborough. It reflects Britain’s updated 2018 polar policy, which remains firmly grounded in the development of scientific understanding of the Arctic climate and environment. Although awareness of security issues in the Arctic is rapidly growing and Britain’s policy acknowledges them, it’s undeniable that climate change remains the driver of nearly all emergent polar issues, and that our understanding of the geophysical future of the Arctic will inform its economic and political evolution. It’s refreshing to see a new vessel unveiled in the name of science with minimal security fanfare.
South-Bound Waters on Greenland’s East Coast are Sourced Equally from the Arctic and Offshore
A study published in Science on October 21 indicates that the East Greenland Coastal Current (EGCC) is sourced approximately equally from coastal currents north of Fram Strait, off Northern Greenland, and from the offshore “shelfbreak jet,” a type of current that forms where the continental shelf drops off into the deep ocean. The establishment of these sources indicates that the southward-flowing EGCC constitutes a continuous pathway for Arctic-sourced freshwater along Greenland’s eastern continental shelf. Although this current constitutes a small portion of water transport in the strait, its exceptionally low salinity makes it a key component of large-scale oceanographic circulation in the North Atlantic. (Science)
Take 5: Accelerated melting of land and sea ice in the Arctic could contribute to changes in the salinity of the EGCC’s source waters identified by this paper, which in turn could change associated oceanographic circulation patterns which moderate the climate system of the North Atlantic, and the future of the civilizations we’ve built around those systems. Although the extent of its effect is unknown, the EGCC and it’s relative salinity affects the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn drives North Atlantic Gyre. In our current climate regime, the North Atlantic Gyre pushes warm, tropical water North along the coast of North Africa and Europe, and contributes to those regions’ mild climate relative to their North American counterparts. This is one reason that Paris and Montreal have such dramatically different climates, despite both being inland at similar latitudes. While the AMOC has been stable for most of recent human history, temporary changes in this circulation system have driven dramatic climate changes in Northern and Western Europe, which are shown in paleoclimate records drawn from Greenlandic ice cores. This scientific finding reminds us of the vital importance of continuing to establish a scientific understanding of changes in the Arctic, especially as the region enters the geopolitical playing field.