The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of October 25, 2021
Political Tension as Finland Takes Over Chairmanship of The Barents Euro-Arctic Council
On October 26, The Independent Barents Observer reported that Finland has now taken over the chairmanship of the Barents Euro-Arctic Council (BEAC) from Norway for the period of 2021-2023 following the biennial ministerial meeting of the Barents Cooperation in Tromsø, Northern Norway this last week. Foreign ministers from all four countries of the Barents region including Russia, Norway, and Finland, were all in attendance at the conference centered around cooperation in Europe’s northern territories, with the exception of Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ann Linde, who remained in Stockholm to host a seminar on the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Senior representatives from BEAC member states Iceland, Denmark and the EU were also present for the proceedings. (Eye on the Arctic, Yle )
Take 1: This conference represented the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs -Sergey Lavrov’s- first visit to a NATO member country since the Kremlin announced just two weeks ago they will be suspending their diplomatic mission to NATO. Critical analysis of this development is therefore important, as the Barents Cooperation is one of four main Arctic fora that can be seen as vital for improving highly strained NATO-Russia relations. Despite NATO’s strong influence over BEAC’s Nordic members, Russia still desires ‘close cooperation’ with the Northern European region. Russia also hopes to promote its political and diplomatic interests in the Arctic by gaining support through such platforms. The shift from a Norwegian to a Finnish presidency can be positive for Russia. The close practical engagement of the previous BEAC chair with NATO in the Barents region has been a source of tension for Russia; as a non-Nato member, Finland can potentially act as a facilitator to increase dialogue between the West and Russia. Overall, after the Ukrainian crisis in particular, the Barents Cooperation has emerged as an important channel for dialogue between the Kremlin and the Nordic countries to build trust and lower tensions. As reflected in a pre-conference interview, the “Barents Euro-Arctic Cooperation is probably the most successful multilateral format of cooperation in the north of Europe as it demonstrates persistent immunity to changing political conditions.” (Ruptly, TASS)
Norwegian Navy Frigate Reaches Svalbard
The Barents Observer reported on October 23 that Norway’s KNM Thor Heyerdahl has arrived in Longyearbyen as part of their high-profile annual patrol of the territorial waters around the Norwegian Svalbard archipelago. The KNM Thor Heyerdahl is the newest of four frigates of the Fridtjof Nansen-class, the main combatant units of the Norwegian Navy. (The Barents Observer)
Take 2: The voyage around Svalbard’s archipelago’s largest island, Spitsbergen, highlights the increasing presence of the Norwegian Navy in the region. As a representative from the Norwegian Navy commented, “We don’t only have a right, but also a duty to safeguard sovereignty in the territorial waters of Spitsbergen, Hopen and Bear Island.” This annual visit is a symbolic challenge to Russian geostrategic interests in the contested area, and part of what Russia reads as a Norwegian attempt to establish absolute national jurisdiction in the area. The serious dissatisfaction of Russia towards these developments is expressed in a 2017 Russian national security assessment report. In response, Russia has also been increasing its presence in the area. For instance, in August, Severomorsk, Russian Northern Fleet’s antisubmarine destroyer, sailed the west coast of Spitsbergen, while still being careful to remain in international waters. In a nutshell, it is clear that Russia and Norway are in a tussle for Svalbard’s future. (Kommersant.ru, The Barents Observer)
Remotely Piloted Aircraft Tested in Canadian Arctic for First Time
On October 27, National Defence Magazine reported that the MQ-9A Reaper, a new remotely piloted aircraft developed by General Atomics for security and surveillance missions, had been tested successfully by the US for operation in Arctic conditions. The unmanned aircraft took off on September 7 in the Canadian Arctic, returning a day later on September 8 after successfully passing the 78th parallel north for the first time. A new telecommunications and surveillance system called the L-band Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (LAISR) service designed specially for high-latitudes by the Inmarsat Government was used to maintain connections with ground control stations during the flight. (National Defense Magazine)
Take 3: With Russia increasing its military presence in the region, the US understands the need to improve military technology for use in the Arctic. The MQ-9A Reaper has the potential to be successfully used by the Marine Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Squadron 1 (VMU-1) as part of the recently released US Marine Corps (USMC) Force Design 2030 general defence strategy. It can make it possible for the US to improve operations specifically in the Arctic, making it possible to track Russian icebreakers, submarines and warships in the Arctic Ocean. This is significant as the uniquely harsh environmental conditions of the region have made it near-impossible to safely collect important data through unmanned remote observation. The revolutionary capabilities of the MQ-9A aircraft when combined with the new technology of the LAISR observation system will pave the way for future security and surveillance missions in the Arctic region. (Marines.mil)
Norway’s New Prime Minister Criticizes EU Proposal To Ban Arctic Oil and Gas Extraction
Jonas Gahr Støre, the new Prime Minister of Norway, has criticized the European Commission’s proposal to ban oil and gas projects in the Arctic by citing the importance of the industry for the transition towards a greener economy, The Financial Times reported on October 25. Støre has promised that his incoming government will continue to search for oil and gas in the Barents Sea. (The Arctic, Financial Times)
Take 4: A conflict has emerged between the importance of oil and gas exports for the Norwegian economy, and the growing environmental resistance from environmental groups such as Greenpeace, and Nature and Youth, and the new EU proposal. However, Norway can potentially still escape unscathed from the EU decision for some time because of the continued importance of natural gas in the EU energy portfolio, to which Norway contributes 20-25% of total imports. Støre takes the position that Arctic oil exploitation is necessary for Norwegian participation in the green transition, still aiming for a 55% reduction in net emissions by 2030 even as he maintains the oil and gas sector. This stance has support from Russia, who is keen to pursue its own Arctic oil ambitions. With the largely untapped Barents Sea representing up to half of unexplored Norwegian oil stocks, it will be hard to compel Norway to ban its Arctic oil exploration projects anytime soon. (BBC, Norwegian Petroleum, Regjeringen.no, TASS)
Northern Sweden’s Permafrost Problem
This week, on October 25, an opinion analysis was published in france24 and Phys.org on how the impact of climate change impacts permafrost in the far north of Sweden. The author, Johannes Ledel, from AFP states that climate change has increased global warming three times faster in Northern Sweden as compared to anywhere in the world. The region is observing emissions from hydrogen sulfide with a distinct odor along with methane, and as the permafrost melts it can add emissions to the atmosphere as permafrost overall contains around 1700 billion tons of organic carbon – double the amount of carbon present in the atmosphere. Permafrost is a ticking time bomb that adds to the climate problem. (france24, Phys.org)
Take 5: Permafrost melting is being studied by researchers, and according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the melting of permafrost will significantly increase by 2100 if CO2 emissions are not reduced. This is disturbing as cities in northern Sweden have observed cracks in the buildings because the ground is shifting with the melting of underneath permafrost. 36,000 buildings, 1,200 settlements and people will be impacted not only in Sweden’s far north, but the Arctic region overall. It also has the potential to impact the sewage, oil and water pipelines. Overall, urgent actions are needed if the world aims to limit the impact of climate change. As Rosqvist says, “You can’t fool yourself anymore,” thus decisive measures are the need of the hour.” (france24, IPCC, Phys.org)