The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of April 19, 2021
Green Light for “Polar Express” Cable to Connect Russia’s Arctic Coastline
On April 20, Rosmorrechflot, the Russian Federal Agency of Sea and River Transport, announced in a press conference that laying of the “Polar Express” fiber optic cable will begin in May or June of this year. This 12,650 kilometer armoured subsea fiber-optic cable will transfer 100 terabits of data per second across the Russian Arctic, between Teriberka in the European Russia to Vladivostok on the Bering Strait. Morvyazsputnik, a Russian Federal State Enterprise, will operate the cable and is working with potential partners to plan for its connection to existing Russian and international communications structures. The intensive cable-laying process is set to be complete in 2026. The project is aimed at providing reliable, high-speed connection necessary for development of the “Greater Northern Sea Route.” (Barents Observer, High North News, Rosmorrechflot, Russian Geographical Society)
Take 1: While this project is predominantly domestic, it is also vital to Russia’s vision of rebirth as a global economic and political power. Much like the projects and investments under China’s Belt and Road Initiative or the U.S. investment in global infrastructure through the “Quad” investment framework established in cooperation with Japan, Australia and India, this comprehensive investment in regional infrastructure also underlies a bid to set the international standard in an increasingly unclear world order. Russia’s investments stand apart, however, as predominantly domestic with international implications limited to the Arctic.
Anti-Mining Coalition Forms New Greenlandic Government
On Friday April 16, Reuters reported that Greenland’s Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) party won an election last week and announced a new government coalition with a pro-independence party, Naleraq. It has dethroned the ruling Siumut party, which has led Greenland in all but one government since 1979, and now provided a 16-15 liberal majority in the Greenlandic parliament. IA framed both its campaign for election and its victory in an environmental and social stance in opposition to a large rare-earth mining project at Kvanefjeld in south Greenland. (Arctic Today, Reuters)
Take 2: Greenland’s struggle for independence from Denmark offers insights into the challenges that other global Arctic communities face in their domestic bids for relative autonomy and independence from southern central governments. Although it may not seem surprising to see a coalition between a liberal anti-mining party and a liberal pro-independence party in Greenland at a first glance, it is hard to imagine how Greenland will pay, increasingly, for its administration and development in pursuit of independence without resource developments such as the Kvanefjeld mine. In the Arctic, the costs of administrative and infrastructural development are high. Natural resources provide the financial backbone necessary to provide basic services to citizens. In addition, strategic resources such as rare earth metals can be traded for the protection and partnership of multiple global powers, which can be balanced to achieve a measure of independence. Still, it might be possible to move towards independence without the Kvanefjeld mine specifically, and any progress that can be made by this coalition in alternative economic development pathways or the use of Greenland’s increasingly strategic location to bolster independence without resource development will be informative for other Arctic communities.
Russian Northern Fleet Conducts Naval Exercises in the Barents Sea
On April 20, the Barents Observer reported that Russia’s Northern Fleet had begun a major naval exercise in the Barents Sea under the direction of Russia’s Naval commander-in-chief, Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov. Details of the exercise are lacking, but Russia deployed at least five vessels from the Kola peninsula in addition to nuclear and diesel-electric submarines. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu framed the exercises in the context of NATO’s naval buildup along Russian borders, particularly in the Arctic. (Barents Observer)
Take 3: This exercise is a perfect example of the increase in military exercises and investments across the region. This week alone, the U.S. also signed an updated agreement with Norway which allows the US to develop four facilities on Norwegian bases, two of which are in the Arctic. In addition, the new exercise comes as the Norwegian Armed Forces share details of their planned Cold Response training in 2022, which will be the nation’s largest Arctic military exercise since the Cold War. The overall environment to which these exercises contribute is sobering. Although there is still a window of opportunity for the Arctic to be a zone where shared local interests incentivise regional co-operations that can flourish beyond the reaches of the broad strokes of global politics, it is evident that it is increasingly difficult to avoid framing Arctic developments in terms of global competition.
New Research Suggests Natural “Brakes” on Carbon Loss to Fire in Arctic Boreal Forest
A 15 year study published on April 16 in Science incorporates the results of numerous studies that aimed to analyze the impact of wildfires on the carbon balance of boreal forests in Alaska. The researchers from Northern Arizona University, University of Saskatchewan and Auburn University led by Michelle C. Mark of Northern Arizona University found that when black spruce dominant boreal forests burn deeply, their regrowth tends to favor other conifers and deciduous broadleaf species such as birch and aspen. Calculations also point to 100 year-old deciduous forests holding 1.6 times more carbon than black spruce forests of a similar age, and the forest type is less likely to burn deeply. The heightened incidence of deep burns in Arctic and sub-Arctic boreal forests observed in the last decade may result in net carbon sequestration in the mid-term through their replacement with increasingly deciduous forests, despite the high immediate emissions produced by fires. (Arctic Today, Science)
Take 4: It is not a secret that there are many well-known positive feedback loops in the global climate system and carbon budget – from ice loss driving albedo to a warming atmosphere driving carbon release from permafrost and resulting in increased warming. The new research is significant in that it serves as a hopeful reminder that in addition to these self-reinforcing patterns which exacerbate human-driven emissions or climate impacts and contribute to the increasing instability of our climate system, there are natural negative feedbacks which “put the brakes” on carbon loss and provide self-stabilization of the earth’s climate and carbon budget.
2018 “Beast from the East” Storm Scientifically Linked to Arctic Warming
On April 19, Arctic Today reported that a study recently published in Nature Geoscience found that water vapor from the Arctic Barents Sea likely comprised 88% of the water in the snow dumped during the severe “Beast from the East” storm which devastated Western Europe and the British isles in late February and early March of 2018. The researchers analyzed the isotopic signature of atmospheric water vapor collected along the storm’s path in Northern Finland to show that it came from the Barents, drawing a clear connection between an observed increase in evaporation from an anomalously warm and ice-free Barents Sea that year and the particular storm. The study was conducted by a team of researchers at the University of Oulu, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, University of Alaska Anchorage, and the French Institut des Géosciences et l’Environnement (National Centre for Scientific Research). (Arctic Today, Nature Geoscience)
Take 5: There is a powerful message in this demonstration of these direct linkages, for the human ecosystem and beyond. If ice-free Arctic waters in the Barents Sea are likely to become a major source of precipitation for Northern Europe, it perhaps implies that an increasingly ice-free Arctic may be a source of winter moisture for other places, as well. The past four years have seen record-breaking spring precipitation in Nome and on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. Increased heavy precipitation events in the sub-Arctic can disrupt transportation, contribute to permafrost loss, threaten infrastructure and transform ecosystems. This research is encouraging as an example of science that helps us understand how our environment is changing, and which provides the evidence necessary to advocate for action to prepare cities and infrastructure throughout Northern Europe for the changes to come.