The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 15 April, 2024
Russia Announces New Long-Range Drone Bases
As reported by The Barents Observer on April 15, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced this week that it will build several long-range drone bases along the Northern Sea Route. The location for Russia’s new bases has not been announced, but positions on the Chukchi Peninsula and Kola Peninsula are likely. The specific aircraft to be stationed at these bases include Inokhodets combat drones, also known as Orion, and Forpost drones, which are used primarily for reconnaissance missions. They have flight times of 24 hours and 18 hours respectively. According to the Ministry, the drones will be used primarily to conduct patrols, as well as search and rescue missions. (The Barents Observer)
Take 1: Russia’s announcement that it will construct long-range drone bases in the Arctic follows a similar decision by Norway earlier this month proposing the establishment of a drone base on the far northern island of Andøya. The plans by Russia and Norway to construct infrastructure to support long-range drones in the Arctic are based on lessons learned from Russia’s war on Ukraine. The proliferation of drones globally since the 9/11 terrorist attacks and their employment in Ukraine is changing the character of war. These changes coincide with the environmental transformation in the Arctic as it is warming four times faster than the rest of the world. As Russia looks at opportunities offered by the opening of the Northern Sea Route, establishing bases to support the defense of that route is logical. While drones are a dual-use technology that can be employed in peace as well as in war, concerns about the latter are driving these basing decisions. Ukraine has successfully employed aerial drones in conjunction with surface sea drones and land-based missiles to destroy approximately one-third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Despite possessing limited naval capability, Ukraine has proven effective at integrating new technologies in the war at sea. Additionally, the new drones will provide critical surveillance capabilities and ensure Russia is prepared for increased activity along the Northern Sea Route. (Arctic Today, CNAS, CNN, Defense Express, FPRI, Imperial War Museums)
Flooding Threatens Nuclear Dump Site in Siberia
As reported by The Barents Observer on April 15, concerns are growing about potential radioactive contamination in Siberia’s Tom River due to severe flooding in the region. High snowfalls this past winter combined with swiftly rising spring temperatures and heavy rains have contributed to record floods in Russia’s Urals. The rising river waters threaten to overwhelm a nearby dump site in Seversk, where radioactive waste from the Soviet-era nuclear program is stored. The Siberian Chemical Combine, previously a major nuclear facility, contains substantial amounts of highly radioactive liquid waste stored in unprotected underground reservoirs. Environmental experts fear that the floodwaters could carry radioactive materials into the Ob River system, eventually reaching the Arctic Ocean. There is no indication from the Russian nuclear authority, Rosatom, that they are actively monitoring or managing the threat. (The Barents Observer)
Take 2: The flooding of the Tom River in Western Siberia is a human and environmental catastrophe, with thousands of houses and tens of thousands of people living in the affected area. The presence of a former weapons-grade plutonium facility in Seversk has the potential to exacerbate the damage, especially if nuclear waste pollution reaches the Arctic Ocean. At the same time, the full extent of the situation is unclear due to a lack of freedom and transparency in Russia. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, critical voices in Russia have been listed as undesirable by law. This includes non-governmental organizations concerned with environmental and local nuclear safety issues such as Greenpeace, World Wildlife Fund, and Bellona. Regional media outlet TV2 in Tomsk, known for its independent journalism following the breakup of the Soviet Union, was shut down in 2014 and its reporters left Russia after the 2022 invasion. Unfortunately, there is no end in sight for the war on Ukraine and cooperation with Russia is stymied. In addition to this flooding of the Tom River, melting permafrost in the Arctic also has the potential to unleash Cold War-era nuclear waste in the region. While Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling garners global media attention, a different sort of nuclear threat could potentially be unleashed from the thawing Arctic tundra. (Associated Press, The Barents Observer, The Independent)
U.S. Sanctions Target Russian Arctic LNG
The Wall Street Journal reported on April 14, that the United States is attempting to use sanctions to obstruct the liquified natural gas (LNG) mega-project known as Arctic LNG 2. The intent is to stop Russia from taking delivery of the specialized tankers that it needs to transport natural gas to market. They also aim to prevent Russia from developing and constructing alternative vessels domestically. Prior sanctions have suspended production at Arctic LNG 2 and future measures will continue to target new natural gas projects as well. (The Wall Street Journal)
Take 3: With LNG demand increasing, U.S. sanctions targeting Arctic LNG 2 are part of a comprehensive effort to hinder Russia’s ability to fund its war on Ukraine. However, the efficacy of sanctions is a matter of debate. Energy prices can influence voter preferences in democracies, which is why weaponizing energy supplies is a favored Russian tactic. While accounting for diverse preferences in a democracy challenges the development and implementation of foreign policy, this is a feature, not a flaw of democratic systems. This week the European Parliament approved national bans on Russian LNG and while this is a positive development, it remains to be seen how many European states will fully cut ties. Western efforts to hinder Russia through sanctions are further complicated by the fact that several states including China and India continue to trade with Russia. India’s imports of Russian oil have increased significantly since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. China has signed deals to transport Russian LNG by sea via the Arctic as it eagerly awaits the completion of the Power of Siberia pipeline later this decade. Sanctions are an important tool that Western states should continue to employ to disrupt Russia’s ability to fund its aggression, but they are not a panacea. Rather they are part of the broader strategic competition as states engage in various forms of action, reaction, and counteraction. (BBC, High North News, High North News, The New York Times)
Arctic Encounters: Wildfires Key Topic
High North News reported from the Arctic Encounter Symposium in Anchorage, Alaska on April 11, that the increasing numbers of wildfires in the Arctic was a key topic of concern. Participants noted that the region’s wildfires can have devastating environmental and social consequences, particularly to the boreal forests, local communities, and mental health. Arctic officials stressed that the issue will require circumpolar cooperation, and further research is needed on the causes and impacts of Arctic fires. (High North News)
Take 4: As the environmental conditions in the Arctic continue to transform, wildfires are a critical concern with far-reaching ecological, social, economic, and cultural implications. We should expect the frequency and scale of wildfires in the Arctic to increase in the coming years and consider the impacts of these fires both in the region and globally. Norway’s decision to launch the Wildland Fires Initiative as part of its Arctic Council chairship to elevate this issue on the Arctic agenda is a positive development. While there is no shortage of ecological, social, and economic challenges in the Arctic, raising awareness of the impact of wildfires will encourage consideration of how the various processes associated with environmental change interact with each other. For example, while permafrost thaw is generally a gradual process, it can be triggered and accelerated by wildfires. The dense plumes of smoke from wildfires drifting across the Arctic region attract more heat, which increases the rate of sea ice melt. There are multiple feedback loops in the Arctic including those related to permafrost thaw and ice melt. The increase in Arctic wildfires in recent years requires a new focus, and the Wildland Fires Initiative, as well as the discussion of this issue at the Arctic Encounter Symposium, are important steps to improve our understanding of the changing Arctic. (BBC, High North News, World Wildlife Fund)
U.S. Special Forces Conduct Exercises in the High North
On April 11, The Washington Post reported that the U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) are training to prepare for operations in the harsh Arctic conditions. Soldiers from across the U.S. special forces, including the SEALs, Green Berets, and 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, have been conducting training exercises throughout Alaska to strengthen cold-weather capabilities and prepare for the region’s difficult operating environment. (The Washington Post)
Take 5: In recent years, Russia has been investing in its Arctic capabilities and Soviet-era military facilities across the region. As Russia continues its efforts to subjugate Ukraine, the Special Operations training illustrates that U.S.military officials are concerned about Russian designs for the Arctic. The U.S. military values tough, realistic training to prepare its troops for war. In October 2022, the United States published its National Strategy for the Arctic Region, outlining its strategic priorities for the region focused on enhancing security, promoting sustainable economic development, protecting the environment, and strengthening international cooperation. The special forces exercises this week aim to operationalize the first pillar of the strategy. The goal is to deter threats and enhance the United States’ ability to defend its interests and the interests of its allies. These special operations exercises follow an exercise in March in which the United States deployed soldiers from Alaska who then jumped into Norway to strengthen airborne operations in the Arctic. Training with allies and partners is extremely important as the United States develops its capability to operate in the Arctic. The opportunity to train and learn with allies is also an important part of Western efforts to deter future Russian aggression. Deterrence requires both credible and capable special operations and general-purpose forces. The accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO will require adjustments to existing and the development of new exercises to enhance integration. Thus, these training operations are important as it is through exercises that militaries develop capabilities and demonstrate them in an attempt to deter adversaries. Si vis pacem, para bellum, “If you want peace, prepare for war.” (CSIS, The Washington Post, U.S. Army)