The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of December 7, 2020
NOAA’s Annual Arctic Report Card
On December 8, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their annual Arctic Report Card during a news conference at the American Geophysical Union. The report has involved 133 scientists from 15 countries, and highlights the 2020 ocean, ice, land and atmosphere observations made throughout the region in the context of historical records. Some of these results state that 2020 was the second warmest year on record in the Arctic since 1900, that the Arctic sea ice at the end of the melt season was at its second lowest in the 42-year satellite record, and that June snow cover extent in the Eurasian Arctic was the lowest recorded in 54 years. (Arctic Program, The Guardian, The New York Times)
Take 1: The annual NOAA report is a comprehensive review of the health and stability of the Arctic ecosystem during that year. What this year’s report confirms is what we already know; that things are not looking so good for the Arctic. The region is rapidly changing at a speed we never have seen before. Wildfires, erosion, and the changing ecosystems are transforming the Arctic into an almost unrecognizable area. The changes that are happening are here to stay for the foreseeable future and adapting to them is now the next big step.
The Arctic Experiences Increased Ship Traffic in 2020
On December 9, it was reported that the Center for High North Logistics (CHNL) in Norway had conducted an analysis on the number of ships that had sailed through the Arctic in 2020. There have been 62 transits through the Northern Sea Route by December 9 versus 37 for the whole year of 2019. This has put the total number of ships using the route at 331 versus 277 for 2019. (Reuters)
Take 2: Even on an off year like 2020 it’s not surprising that shipping traffic has increased in the region. As the sea ice continues to decline rapidly, areas become more accessible and navigable. While this can be seen as positive from a commercial point of view because it shortens distances between Europe and Asia with up to 40%, it also comes at a cost with increased risk of for example underwater noise pollution that can impact the migration of fish, and oil spills in pristine areas where infrastructure is also lacking. It is a good start that the UN recently approved a ban on the use of heavy fuel oil (HFO) in Arctic waters, but loopholes still exist. More environmental regulation overall is needed to minimize the impact of increased shipping in the region.
Russia Announces Future Arctic Job Boom
On December 9, it was announced that Russia has the possibility of creating 182,400 jobs in the Arctic by 2035. The number is based on survey findings from researchers at Petrozavodsk State University and Northern (Arctic) Federal University who were requested by the Agency for Human Capital Development in the Far East and the Arctic to forecast the Russian Arctic economy’s human resources demand and analyze the capabilities of the secondary professional and higher education system in meeting this demand. 140,000 of the jobs will be created by implementing 198 investment projects worth 19 trillion rubles, and the remaining 42,000 by expanding the 627 current production facilities. Most jobs will be created in the mining industry, followed by the processing industry, construction, and transportation and storage sectors. (Arctic.ru)
Take 3: This is yet another example that shows how Russia has its eyes set on the Arctic. The fact that the Agency for Human Capital Development in the Far East and the Arctic already held an online job fair from December 2-8 indicates the country’s determination and commitment to making Arctic possibilities on paper become a reality. While the particular matter of jobs in the Russian Arctic can be considered a domestic issue to some, it should still spark greater interest in the wider international community as it adds to the country’s growing list of activities, development and engagement in the region in general, and shows where its priority lays. It almost seems like not a single week goes by without Russia moving forward on the Arctic stage.
China Seeks to Monitor Arctic Shipping Routes with New Satellite
On December 4, China Academy of Space Technology and Sun Yat-sen University announced that they have jointly developed a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imaging satellite. The intent is for the satellite to monitor and predict sea ice, marine disasters and climate change for high-precision monitoring of Arctic sea lanes. It will be placed in a sun synchronous orbit at an altitude of 720 kilometers. The satellite is set to launch in 2022. (High North News, South China Morning Post)
Take 4: China continues to expand its influence in the Arctic, engaging in the area and making itself a relevant player. The country has sought to justify its claim of being a “near Arctic state,” and when this satellite launches it will increase the country’s capability to inform shipping traffic and increase its influence in Arctic affairs. Outside of just monitoring shipping conditions the satellite’s ability to monitor changes in the sea ice will allow it to observe changes in global warming and the effects that pollution is having in the Arctic region. This can further inform research and contribute to future discussions on reducing carbon emissions.
An Ocean Filled with Nuclear Submarines
On December 9, it was reported that Sevmash, Russia’s largest shipbuilding enterprise and only shipyard that builds nuclear-powered submarines, had reached its target of employing 30,000 people, enabling it to finally meet the Russian State Armament Program 2018-2027 orders of continuing the renewal of Russia’s fleet of strategic nuclear submarines. The company has now 15 nuclear-powered submarines under way, the highest number since the end of the Cold War. (Sevmash, The Barents Observer)
Take 5: Having increased manning will make it possible for the company to roll out many more submarines in the seven years to come. The increased number of subs are in line with the goals set by the Russian military in meeting its nuclear deterrence capability goals for the future, and they represent an updated capability that Russia has struggled in the past in keeping current. The U.S. is also in the midst of updating its nuclear submarine fleet and in the next few years will add to its numbers. Nuclear submarines are a key part of these countries’ nuclear triad and their capabilities should not be underestimated. A single undetected submarine has the potential to cause catastrophic damage to an enemy.