The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of June 21, 2021
Agreement on Prevention of IUU Fishing in the Central Arctic Ocean Comes Into Force
On June 23, High North News reported that the International Agreement to Prevent Unregulated Fishing in the High Seas of the Central Arctic Ocean will come into force on Friday, June 25, and remain in effect for the next 16 years. The agreement was signed in 2018 by all Arctic coastal states and various global fisheries,including actors in Iceland, the EU, Japan, South Korea and China. The area in question is approximately the size of the Mediterranean Sea, and remains icebound for most of the year. There are no commercial fisheries in the area. The Agreement is a precautionary measure that will allow for scientific research and the establishment of sustainable management practices to occur before sea ice loss allows the exploitation of newly exposed fisheries. (High North News)
Take 1: While it may appear strange to protect a stretch of ocean shielded in ice and weather that would turn the most stout of fishing fleets to more friendly (and fluid) waters, it is a remarkable achievement for the international community to collectively recognize the ways climate will impact this area, and decide to protect it from exploitation for the explicit purpose of conducting baseline ecological research and establishing sustainable management. Throughout history, humans have occupied new spaces as they become available to us through changing geography, climate and technology. Typically, resource management has only emerged once mismanagement threatens a depended-upon resource. It is refreshing and hope-inspiring to see cooperation at the global scale to preempt the tragedy of the commons and ensure stewardship of our common resources. It also seems that the Arctic is well-positioned to provide opportunities for this international cooperation and foresight due to its historical inaccessibility. In another international triumphant example of preemptive protection of Arctic Ocean resources, the United Nations also banned the use of Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) in the Arctic this week. HFO is rich in heavy metals and other contaminants that impact the marine environment, and creates soot that accelerates ice loss. Although the World Maritime Organization (WMO) has previously enacted an international ban on the use of HFO in Arctic shipping, it is nonetheless an achievement for the UN to follow suit.
Scientists Discover 650,000 Year-Old Permafrost in Siberia
On June 22, High North News reported that an international research team including Russian, German and English researchers led by Professor Julian Morton from the University of Sussex has successfully dated the oldest known permafrost in Siberia while they were looking to establish the age of the permafrost layer in an area near the village of Batagay in Russia. The permafrost layer in question is buried nearly 50 meters below the soil surface. According to their isotopic analysis, the permafrost layer is 650,000 years old. The permafrost survived a warm phase that melted much of the Siberian permafrost approximately 130,000 years ago, when the Arctic summer was 4-5 degrees Celsius warmer than it is today. The findings were published in the Quaternary Research journal on June 15, 2021. (High North News)
Take 2: Permafrost contains preserved plant and animal tissues, atmospheric tracers and more, which provide unique scientific information on the historical Arctic environment. It is wondrous and of great scientific value to have access to material, frozen and therefore relatively unaltered, from 650,000 years ago. At the same time, the context of this discovery is a sobering reminder of how sensitive permafrost – and the huge bank of carbon it keeps out of the atmosphere – is to human activity. From the 1940s to 1960s, a series of roads were built near Batagay, and to create them, the vegetation was removed from a hillside underlain by this unique and ancient permafrost. In the absence of the insulating tangle of roots and grasses, the permafrost began to melt more deeply and more quickly, creating a dramatic slump in the earth that is now more than 900 meters. This slump attracted the attention of locals, and eventually that of local, national and international science and government, and resulted in it’s study and the discovery of its age. Now the permafrost is disappearing faster than ever and the valuable remnants of the environment of 650,000 years ago are rotting as they melt out of their icy chambers. Scientists must scramble to collect all the data they can before the layer melts away.
Exceptional Heat Scorches Arctic Europe and Russia
On June 22, the Barents Observer reported that data collected by the European Space Agency (ESA) Copernicus Sentinel-3A and Sentinel-3B satellites confirmed that the average land surface temperature in Siberia reached a record-breaking 35 degrees Celsius on Sunday, June 20, with a peak temperature of 48 degrees Celsius near the town of Verkhojansk in Russia. In addition, temperatures over the weekend and throughout this June have smashed heat records across the Russian and European Arctic and sub-Arctic. The high and dry temperatures are contributing to an early fire season in Yakutia, where the Russian government reported 64 forest fires burning as of Tuesday. (Barents Observer, Washington Post).
Take 3: News of record breaking temperatures and dramatic changes in the Arctic splash the global news headlines periodically, along with daily news of our changing climate – slumping permafrost, record low sea ice extent, coastal erosion, acidifying oceans, and wildfires to name a few. This news serves as a reminder that our Arctic and world have changed, and climate change is in both the future and the present. While it can feel overwhelming, it is helpful to notice emergent seeds of new life that may indicate new adaptive ecosystems. Some of these points of light and re-emergence include recent studies which suggest that deeply burned Arctic and sub-Arctic boreal forest may be inclined to repopulate with a higher proportion of deciduous trees, which are less susceptible to wildfires, and that pink salmon that pioneer ever-more Northerly streams may provide a new fishery for coastal inhabitants. Knowledge that the sea ice will melt, and an approximation of when, has also allowed us to take the exceptional step of protecting the Central Arctic Ocean from fishing until we understand more about that Ocean’s changing ecosystem, discussed above. Although news about record heat may underline the feeling that we are helpless to stop the change we have set in motion, we can retain hope and take action to adapt as a species and part of an interdependent ecosystem.
Arctic Emerges as a Rare Zone of Cooperation in Biden-Putin Summit
On June 18, Arctic Today reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin and United States President Joe Biden met in Geneva on June 16 for their first meeting during the latter’s term as President. Although the Arctic region was peripheral to their discussions, which focused on Ukraine and nuclear non-proliferation, it emerged consistently as a rare zone of shared interest and potential cooperation between Russia and the United States amidst an otherwise deteriorating relationship. (Arctic Today, Brookings, High North News)
Take 4: The emergence of the Arctic as a zone of exceptionalism on the global stage indicates a transformed version of Arctic exceptionalism. Historically, Arctic exceptionalism referred to a dynamic in which international cooperation could proceed in the Arctic at a regional level despite changing global relationships between the nations involved. Under this old exceptionalism, regional needs and incentives for cooperation to achieve shared goals – safety of navigation and environmental protection – could exist without drawing attention or getting mired in national and global geopolitical tangles. This provided for local solutions and a parallel politic for the Arctic, which was separated from the global politic. The way in which the Arctic emerged at this summit and played into the discussions between the Russian and U.S. heads of state, and at a NATO summit the week prior, indicates a new kind of Arctic exceptionalism in which the region remains a unique space of potential for cooperation and multilateral development and decision making, but is placed firmly on the global geopolitical stage. While it is encouraging to witness the transformed exceptionalism, it is important to keep in mind that Russia and the U.S.’ common interests in the Arctic are limited by very different ideological and economic drivers for their presence and desired developments.
Norway Grants Northernmost Drilling License
On June 23, Reuters reported that the Government of Norway awarded four oil exploration leases, including three for the Arctic Barents Sea, to oil companies Norske Shell, Equinor, Idemitsu Petroleum Norway, INEOS E&P Norway, Lundin, OMV (Norway) and Vår Energi. The awards are designed to enable exploration of untested potential oil reserves on the nation’s continental shelf. It follows a controversial decision to seek to expand the geographical reach of Norway’s oil developments, which was challenged unsuccessfully by environmentalists in Norway’s supreme court in December 2020. Climate activists have continued their protest to the ongoing efforts to expand offshore exploration in the Barents Sea, and asked the European Court of Human Rights to rule against Norway’s decision to seek expansion earlier this month. They argue that the effects of the implied carbon emissions deprive young EU citizens of their future. (Barents Observer, Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, Reuters, Reuters)
Take 5: This is tricky business for Norway, which is undeniably dependent on oil revenue to support its high standard of living, exceptional social services, and world-class education and research systems. Although the contradiction between Norway’s lofty climate mitigation goals and economic development plans is stark, an alternative economic model is not apparent. Regardless of the absence of an easy solution, Norway – and other oil-dependent states throughout the Arctic such as Russia and the U.S.’ Alaska – may have to adapt to a world with lower oil prices and demand regardless. It is telling that only seven companies bid for the exploration leases offered in this round, and that the number of companies bidding has reduced dependably with each round of licensing since 2016, which saw 26 companies bid for exploration licenses. In addition to increasingly negative public opinion and effective political pressure to desist from Arctic drilling, forecasted oil and gas prices and demand remain uncertain, and may never recover from the blow dealt by COVID. This uncertainty has also led to tepid interest in the new leases that were briefly available in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and may be a reason that companies such as Gazprom can be seen hedging their bets by creating facilities for petrochemical production at their LNG plants, which can soften the blow to revenue in case of lacking energy demand and low prices for LNG directly. Regardless of the environmental agenda, oil states throughout the Arctic need to deeply consider their options for alternative economic development, as they seem to increasingly have no other choice.