The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 4 December, 2023
Norway to Allow Deep-Sea Mining in the Arctic
As reported by AP News on December 5, Norway’s government has reached a deal with two opposition parties to permit deep-sea mining in the Arctic Ocean. The government’s Labour and Center parties made the deal with the Conservative and Progress parties. Lawmakers from the four parties agreed to open seabed mineral exploration in a step-by-step process, with the Norwegian Parliament responsible for approving the initial development projects. The government plans to open the area southwest of Svalbard for mining. (AP News)
Take 1: The deal between the government and two large opposition parties is a major step towards commercial deep-sea mining in the Arctic. In recent statements and assessments, the government indicates that the Arctic seabed contains substantial amounts of minerals and rare earth elements, which could help strengthen the economy and reduce dependence on China for critical minerals. Yet, experts warn that seabed mineral exploration could be disastrous for the environment. The deep sea is a vast habitat, supporting an immense range of unique species, but it is also one of the least explored ecosystems on the planet. By disturbing these ancient habitats through destructive and extractive processes, seabed mining could severely alter the ecosystem, resulting in catastrophic and permanent consequences for the ocean’s biodiversity. Mining operations could harm organisms in various ways, including habitat loss, noise pollution, toxic discharges, and sediment plumes. Moreover, the impacts of seabed extraction on the Arctic’s sensitive and endangered species remain unclear. Despite these risks and opposition from scientists and many countries that support a moratorium on deep-sea mining, the government’s deal suggests that resource extraction is a greater priority for Norway. As competition and the demand for critical minerals continue to grow, Norway’s decision may open the door for others to approve seabed mining in the Arctic and elsewhere, disturbing some of the last true wilderness on Earth. (International Union for Conservation of Nature, London School of Economics, Scientific American)
Melting Glaciers: Another Source of Arctic Emissions
As reported by CBS News on December 4, a new study published in Nature Geoscience discovered that melting glaciers are releasing methane gas trapped beneath the surface. Examining 123 glacial groundwater springs on Svalbard, the scientists detected methane gas leaks in all of the springs except one. The team of researchers determined that as glaciers recede, they open the surface and create pathways for methane to escape. The paper concluded that these emissions should be considered in methane management and planning. (CBS News)
Take 2: Although studies on greenhouse gases from the Arctic often examine emissions from permafrost thaw, the study draws attention to melting glaciers as another source of emissions, specifically methane. According to the UN Environment Programme, methane is a hazardous air pollutant and a potent greenhouse gas. It is responsible for more than 25 percent of global warming and is 80 times more harmful than carbon dioxide, trapping more heat in the atmosphere. The severity of methane is highlighted by the fact that methane featured prominently at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28), with agreements and pledges to cut methane emissions. Yet, as countries and industries work to reduce and manage methane emissions, the paper indicates that large amounts of methane may not be properly accounted for in these plans. While the scientists only detected modest methane leaks from the groundwater springs, they warn that there are large underground reservoirs beneath glaciers that have the potential to release significant amounts of gas in the future. Two-thirds of the world’s glaciers are projected to disappear by 2100. As more glaciers retreat, they risk exposing more methane, amplifying warming and creating a dangerous feedback loop. Therefore, more research is needed to quantify these emissions to ensure that they are factored into climate projections, methane policies, and international climate agreements. (NBC News, PBS Newshour, The Washington Post, UN Environment Programme)
US and Sweden Sign Historic Defense Agreement
As reported by The Barents Observer on December 6, the United States and Sweden concluded the first bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) between the two countries. The agreement was signed by Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon. The DCA regulates the operation and presence of US troops in Sweden and outlines conditions for US military support. It also enables US personnel to train and operate at four bases in Northern Sweden: Luleå, Vidsel, Boden, and Kiruna. (The Barents Observer)
Take 3: The signing of the Defense Cooperation Agreement is a historic milestone for US-Sweden defense relations and highlights the growing importance of Arctic security as the US and NATO work to strengthen defenses in the region. The northern parts of the country feature prominently in the DCA. By allowing US forces to train and operate in four northern bases, the agreement expands the US’ ability to engage in the High North. As Arctic states, both countries face increasingly complex security challenges, and new threats from the region continue to emerge. In addition to Russia’s militarization and aggressive actions in the Arctic, sub-threshold or gray-zone activities are also a significant risk and can raise tensions. These include dual-use infrastructure, maritime sabotage, cyber-attacks, intelligence gathering, and fisheries competition. Moreover, the increasing maritime activity and military exercises increase the risk of unintended escalation, especially as the region becomes more tense and mistrustful. With the security situation deteriorating, the DCA enhances the capacity of Sweden and the US to respond to security developments in the region. As Sweden prepares to join NATO, the agreement also reaffirms the US’ commitment to its new partner and marks the beginning of a deeper defense cooperation between the two countries. (Georgetown Security Studies Review, The Arctic Institute, UK House of Lords)
Arctic LNG and Methane: More Greenhouse Gas Emissions Than Coal
As reported by High North News on December 5, new research on greenhouse gas emissions from the full lifecycle of liquified natural gas (LNG) projects found that the transportation of LNG emits significant amounts of methane. While modern LNG tankers use some of the transported gas to power their engines, the researchers noted that the combustion also produces varying degrees of methane, and longer voyages, like those through the Arctic, have greater emissions. Adding these to the total, the scientists concluded that the greenhouse gas emissions from LNG exceed those of coal. (High North News)
Take 4: While often seen as a better alternative to coal, the new research on the total greenhouse gas emissions from liquified natural gas suggests otherwise. By examining the entire lifecycle of LNG projects, the study draws attention to the methane emissions from LNG carriers during the transportation of the gas. With most of the world’s liquified natural gas transported by tankers, LNG carriers could severely contribute to global methane emissions, which are a potent greenhouse gas that traps significantly more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide. The impacts can be even greater in the Arctic as the region is already warming four times faster than the rest of the world. Due to the long distances and the need to break through sea ice, ice-class Arctic LNG carriers consume considerably more fuel, resulting in more methane emissions. Yet, Russia continues to expand its LNG production and transportation in the Arctic, investing heavily in new LNG developments along the Northern Sea Route. Earlier this year, Russia began sending LNG to China through Arctic waters; it is also exploring Arctic shipping with India. Additionally, the EU continues to import large amounts of Russian LNG, with the union receiving more than 200 shipments from LNG plants in the Arctic each year. As the demand for LNG grows, policymakers should consider the overall risks of LNG, particularly in the Arctic. (High North News, The Maritime Executive, US Energy Information Administration)
Arctic Driving Cyclone Formation in the Arabian Sea
As reported by The Times of India on December 7, scientists from the National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research have found that Arctic warming is increasing the severity and frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea. In a paper published in Nature, researchers noted an increase in the formation of cyclones from 1998 to 2021. Through their analysis, the scientists suggest that the atmospheric circulation associated with the rapidly warming Arctic strengthens the formation of cyclones. The article concludes that as the Arabian Sea and the Arctic warm further, tropical cyclones will continue to increase. (The Times of India)
Take 5: The findings from the study provide new evidence for the claim that what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. As the Arctic is responsible for regulating the global ecosystem, the rapidly warming region has critical consequences for communities around the world. Arctic warming will likely intensify extreme weather events, change weather patterns, amplify global warming, and raise sea levels. Although these impacts will be particularly acute in the local environment, they will be felt worldwide as well. The research highlights how climate change in the Arctic is a direct threat to security. Cyclones are highly destructive climate hazards that can cause severe storm surges, extensive rainfall, flooding, and violent winds. With the coastlines along the Arabian Sea thickly populated, these storms can inflict considerable damage. Moreover, cyclones can exacerbate food insecurity by destroying crops, reducing arable land, and harming livelihoods. Thus, although most states are not located in the Arctic, the paper emphasizes that the Arctic is critically important and that addressing climate change in the region should be a priority for all countries. However, with changes in the Arctic set to continue, even with drastic climate action, it is important for countries to invest in adaptation measures to be prepared for the future consequences of Arctic warming. (National Academies Press, Nature, UK All Party Parliamentary Group for the Polar Regions)