Climate Change as a Factor Impacting Current and Future Commercial Fisheries in the Arctic Region
A fishery ship docked in the Icelandic port Isafjordur. Photo: Ekaterina Uryupova
The Arctic is considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Fisheries, including those focused on snow crab and polar cod, are among the most important economic and socially productive activities in the area. Regional weather alterations and oceanic warming trends result in major ecosystem shifts in the northern waters as soon as species, including commercially important ones, migrate to new locations.1) The objective of this article is to examine climate impacts on the indigenous communities and commercial fisheries of a snow crab and a polar cod in the Arctic.
The case of snow crab
One of the major commercial fisheries in Europe, Alaska, and Canada
The snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) plays a significant role in the fisheries sector in the North. The population of this species can be found in the Arctic Ocean – from Greenland to Norway (non-native, introduced), and across the Pacific Ocean (native). However, climate change has caused an environmental shift and a change in distribution of this species. Snow crabs inhabit frigid waters and this species is very sensitive to changes in temperatures, as this specific environment is important for its development. Some of the life stages of the crab require low temperatures – juveniles are known to survive with a temperature preferendum below 2°C, and most likely also above 0°C.2) In general, the snow crab requires special conditions for development – after three larval stages (first and second zoea, and megalopa), larvae settle on the seabed and metamorphose into the first stage benthic crab in summer.3)
A few decades earlier, snow crab populations could be found only in waters of the U.S. State of Alaska, and the Russian and Canadian Arctic. Ongoing changes in weather patterns and local environmental conditions have resulted in migrations of this species to new locations. Consequently, within the established fishery grounds, the snow crab can not be found in amounts which are sufficient for fishery activities – for instance, in the Bering Sea the Alaska’s snow crab population has significantly declined (up to 90 percent), from 8 billion in 2018 to a billion in 2021.4) Additionally, the harvest of this valuable crustacean has been negatively impacted by climate shifts in Bristol Bay (Alaska, the Bering Sea) – one of the significant fishery grounds in this area – the snow crab catch of 5.6 million pounds was the smallest there in over 40 years.5)
One of the reasons for such a dramatic change in the local snow crab population (and other species as well such as the red king crab) are the extremely warm ocean temperatures recorded in recent years, and especially between 2017-2019. During this period, large amounts of these crustaceans were found in the northern part of the Bering Sea, where they were not found before.6) Besides the migration of the snow crab, a decline in stocks of this species has also been observed.7) As scientists have noted, the continued decline of sea ice on the Bering Sea could have implications for the food availability to keystone marine species, and to the expansion of their stocks north.8) It is believed that when an ice edge bloom forms, a food source is available for larval snow crabs. However, it is not only about the food source, but also about the negative effect of growing water temperatures.9) Similarly, the red king crab population has been showing a continued decline in the Bering Sea for many years; it has resulted in lower catches of this species as well as fewer permits issued annually.10)
Implications for existing commercial fisheries
Snow crabs are also found in the Svalbard area, especially on the continental shelf within 200 nautical miles, in the Barents Sea. Originally, this species was considered to be a non-native for this area, and it was first caught in the eastern part of the Barents Sea in the 1990s.11).
According to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) of 1982 Arctic states have the right to establish a territorial sea up to a limit of 12 nautical miles and an exclusive economic zone of up to 200 nautical miles. The 1920 Svalbard Treaty gives Norway a full right to manage resources of Svalbard sustainably. However, it is important to remember that the Treaty applies the rule of equal treatment of citizens from the treaty countries (as of 2023, 46 of them) on the archipelago and the 12 nautical mile territorial sea. Over the past few decades, the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) or continental shelves of the Arctic littoral states have become areas of high tensions in exploration of mineral and biological resources- this includes Norway´s and its neighbors interests ín this area.12)
The disagreement between Norway and the EU on snow crab catches has been a long story – it started with the ban by Norway on catching snow crabs in 2015 (as Norway and Russia started to consider this species as a sedentary one and consequently mentioned that the harvest of snow crab in this area is “an exclusive and sovereign right of the coastal States”.13) In 2019, as a result of the illegal fishing by an EU fishing vessel (the Latvian shipping company SIA North STAR Ltd.) for snow crabs in the wider waters outside of the Biologically Significant Marine Area (EBSA), which also wanted to have an access to the Svalbard population of this significant commercial species, the boat was banned from fishing in the above-mentioned waters as a result of an investigation. In 2023, the Supreme Court of Norway made a decision that the species is considered a sedentary invertebrate species living on the seabed, and thus governed by the United Nations Law of the Sea – it means that snow crab fishing off the coast of Svalbard is deemed illegal for EU ships.14) Uncertainties about the future climate alterations make the Barents Sea area, with its intense fishing, very complex in terms of predictions of future snow crab catches.
The case of a polar cod
A key forage fish in the Arctic marine ecosystem
The polar, or the Arctic, cod (Boreogadus saida) is among other commonly harvested species in Northern Atlantic and Arctic waters. In Canadian waters, Arctic cod are generally distributed between the Beaufort Sea and the Grand Banks, and can be also found in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.15) This species is also common in the Barents Sea along the Norwegian coast and off Svalbard, as well as near Novaya Zemlya and Franz Josef Land in the Russian Arctic.16) Interestingly, scientists have also observed the northward expansion of the polar cod due to warming waters. As a result of global changes, the species has become increasingly more common in the fjords of Western Svalbard.17) This fish follows a classical ‘migration triangle’ pattern, where juveniles can be found at the nursery grounds, subadults – feeding grounds, and adults – at spawning grounds, in relation to ice cover and seasonal production.18) As the polar cod migrates farther north, other fish, such as capellin, beaked redfish and long rough dab, are filling the cod’s niche in the ecosystem.19) Sea ice is vital as a habitat and a spawning substrate for the polar cod. In addition, it has been observed that with decreasing sea ice cover the polar cod is adapting to grow faster in the Barents Sea, but it might have an adverse effect on the polar environment itself as the polar cod is considered to be a key forage fish in the Arctic marine ecosystem.20) It is most likely that the area’s unique species composition will change, resulting in dramatic transformations of the food network in the ocean.
Due to climate change, marine ecosystems at high latitudes show alterations caused by reduced sea-ice-cover, changing temperatures, and other characteristics of the physical environment. In the future, we predict the upcoming shifts in the may include some dramatic changes in the spatial distribution of the fish species. According to the recent study,21) these kind of alterations may include reposition of the fish species towards the north, the development of smaller zooplankton prey species, followed by the decreased survivability of fish species in winter, shift from benthic(near bottom)- to pelagic(surface)-dominated food webs, etc. Under these conditions, the Arctic cod as one of the most abundant fish in the Arctic currently may become a species with a patchy distribution. It may also result in serious obstacles to existing fisheries and an urgent need for new fisheries, demand in development of new ways of management of migratory fish stocks, and possible conflicts for marine living resources.
Impact of the climate change on traditional Indigenous activities and commercial fisheries
Several factors have coalesced to cause the ongoing environmental shift in the northern waters. Indigenous and commercial Arctic fisheries are being impacted by these short- and long term changes directly and indirectly. For instance, there has been observed a decrease in near-shore areas of Hudson Bay (Canada) which is a fish harvest area for Indigenous communities.22) Dependance on a single (key) food resource shows the vulnerability of local communities under the impact of climate change, thus, for example, Paamiut settlement in Greenland has already faced the problem of decreasing population of the polar cod in the area.23) Cod biomass decreased more than 99 percent between 1988 and 1991, and has since shown no signs of recovery despite the climate change in this area. Under the impact of climate change, cold-adapted polar cod may decline while Atlantic cod will most likely replace it in northern waters.
Such changes in areas of distribution of fish stocks may pose a challenge to the entire fisheries governance complex, national authorities managing work within exclusive economic zones, and other activities such as conservation.24) The regional fisheries management organizations (RFMOs), as well as sub-regional and bilateral instruments, play an active role in preventing unregulated commercial fishing in the high seas part of the Arctic Ocean. However, the changing environment may dramatically impact the currently existing management and to require the development of the shared legal regime in the region. All together this may lead to new challenges for the Indigenous communities and the commercial industry followed by fisheries conflicts in the Arctic region in the future.
Why do countries monitor the Arctic Ocean and the adjacent seas for future fisheries?
The Arctic region is a current and a potential future fishery ground. Frankly, today’s political landscape and tensions over fish stocks in the northern waters do not look calm. Among examples of quite tense current relations are the “cod war in European waters”,25) a “snow crab conflict”26) and other fisheries disputes in the area.27) In the future, biological resource accessibility may become a critical point for governance complex and mitigation of climate change in the Arctic region. Even though the Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement (CAOFA) is in force for at least 16 years from 2021, some of the nations are monitoring and observing possibilities for commercial fishing in the Arctic waters in the future. As the Agreement states, the Arctic Ocean is open for scientific fisheries exploration, and nations look to the future with optimism: for instance, in 2023, the Joint Program for Scientific Research and Monitoring (JPSRM) Framework was agreed between the USA and Russia.28)
Climate change will definitely impact the cod and crabs industries in the Arctic, and the Indigenous peoples will be negatively affected by it as well. The examples of the fish and shellfish species point to increased food vulnerability in a changing Arctic environment. The demand on the shared legal system on marine biological resources, as well as stronger international cooperation in the region are growing. Effectively planned activities and collaboration between the states and scientific institutions will potentially help to avoid new conflicts focused on the fish stocks in the region.
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