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China-Russia Arctic Cooperation in the Context of a Divided Arctic

By | Article
April 4, 2023
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Putin's state visit to China, China held a ceremony at the square outside the East Gate of the Great Hall of the People to welcome Putin. Accompanied by Xi Jinping, Putin watches the parade of the guard of honor of the three services of the Chinese People's Liberation Army

China warmly welcomes Putin’s state visit in 2018. After the conversation between Xi Jinping and Putin, China and Russia reached a consensus on deepening bilateral cooperation and signed a series of cooperation agreements. Photo: Presidential Press and Information Office

The Arctic Institute Arctic Collaboration Series 2023

At present, Russia is excluded and isolated by the seven other Arctic states (Arctic 7) in the Arctic, and Russia’s Arctic strategy has also been hindered. To realize its Arctic plans, Russia desperately needs non-Western partners to jointly develop the Arctic. Therefore, Russia sees China as a suitable option. For China, collaboration with Russia is both an opportunity and a challenge, and China needs to handle it carefully to avoid being ostracized by other countries in the Arctic.

Russia’s Arctic Dilemma and China

Before February 2022, although the geopolitical conflict between Russia and the West had become increasingly fierce, it had little impact on the relationship between Russia and the West in the Arctic region. Cooperation in the Arctic region has been regarded as a relatively stable area of international cooperation with common global interests.1) Until Russia launched military action against Ukraine in 2022, increasing geopolitical tensions did not stop Arctic states’ collaboration under the Arctic Council. However, with the continuation of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the future of Arctic cooperation seems to be splitting. The landmark event is that on March 3, 2022, the Arctic 7 issued a joint statement, announcing the suspension of cooperation with Russia in the Arctic Council.2) In the view of many observers, this suspension will last for years or even decades.3) Russia did not pay much attention to the isolation of the seven countries in the Arctic, but focused on its own domestic Arctic affairs, sought to cooperate with China, and actively invited China to participate in Russia’s Arctic development projects.4)

Facing Russia’s enthusiasm for seeking Arctic cooperation, China has also responded positively to Russia’s intention to deepen cooperation in the Arctic. It has not only further strengthened its energy cooperation with Russia, but also opened cooperation in various new areas, such as Arctic shipping. With regard to the suspension of the Arctic Council, China also publicly stated that it would not recognize the Arctic Council without Russia.5) Benefiting from the confrontation between Russia and the other seven countries in the Arctic, China has more opportunities to carry out Arctic cooperation with Russia than ever before. But in the face of the increasingly divided Arctic, will the path of China-Russia cooperation in the Arctic really be smooth? How should China adjust its direction of Arctic cooperation with all Arctic states?

Russia’s Arctic cooperation: China is needed

Russia’s Arctic cooperation is facing an unprecedentedly complex and difficult situation. At present, Russia is suffering from various sanctions imposed by the United States, NATO allies and the European Union, and the support of these countries and alliances for Ukraine’s funds and weapons also makes Russia face increasing pressure at home and abroad. At the same time, the official contact between Arctic 7 and Russia has been closed, and Arctic 7 in the Arctic have suspended their Arctic cooperation with Russia and taken practical actions. For example, the Nordic Council of Ministers announced the suspension of regional cooperation between the Nordic countries and Russia, Greenland stopped the exchange of fishery quotas with Russia, Norway followed the European Council and joined the sanctions of restrictive measures against Russia, and so on.

In addition, the role of NATO in the Arctic will certainly increase in the future.6) Of the Arctic 7, only Finland and Sweden are not NATO countries. But now, Finland and Sweden are also applying to join NATO. If the application is approved, there will be a new geopolitical alliance among the Arctic countries, forming a situation in which NATO’s Arctic 7 confronts Russia.7) This will pose a huge threat to Russia’s Arctic cooperation. Because in many Arctic affairs, what Russia is facing is no longer a single Arctic country, but NATO’s Arctic alliance, which will weaken Russia’s bargaining power for cooperation and affect Russia’s initiative and interests in Arctic cooperation. On the other hand, given Russia has long been wary and hostile to NATO expansion, it is hard to imagine that in the face of NATO’s Arctic alliance, Russia can still trust Arctic countries such as Finland and Sweden as it did in the past. Thus, for Russia’s Arctic development, Russia urgently needs to find reliable partners from non-western countries and non-NATO countries. In this case, China is undoubtedly the only right partner for Russia’s Arctic cooperation. China has a strong financial and technical force, has a high enthusiasm for the development of the Arctic, and has a long-term cooperative relationship with Russia.

China’s Choice: Towards Russia, Alienating the Other States in the Arctic?

For China, deepening Arctic cooperation with Russia benefits its own interests in terms of economy, energy security, and political influence in the Arctic. But the question is, on the one hand, how long can the good time of Sino-Russian cooperation promoted by short-term external conflicts last? On the other hand, this deepening of China-Russia cooperation is taking place under the background of the Arctic split. The deeper the cooperation with Russia, the more likely it is to cause misunderstanding and vigilance of other Arctic countries, which may lead to mistrust of China by other Arctic countries and even trigger confrontation between China and other Arctic countries. Moreover, as a non-Arctic country, China’s many activities in the Arctic cannot be separated from the support and cooperation of the Arctic countries. In the long run, only a peaceful and stable Arctic is in the interests of non-Arctic countries8) and so is China’s political and economic interests. China needs to balance its relations with other Arctic countries while deepening China-Russia cooperation.

Although the active support and strategic leadership of the leaders of China and Russia have provided the basis for effective Arctic cooperation between the two countries.9) In fact, for a long time, the Russian local level has always been wary of foreign forces developing the Arctic region, worrying that the entry of foreign companies will affect the dominance of domestic companies, damage the ecological environment, and threaten regional security.10) In view of this, the deepening of Sino-Russian cooperation is inseparable from China’s gaining the trust of Russia at the local level and reaching a consensus on interests. Therefore, it is necessary for China to strengthen communication with Russia on the Arctic development policy at the local level and to formulate an Arctic cooperation plan that is in line with the long-term interests of both parties. At the same time, China also needs to abide by international norms and protect the local environment, which will be more beneficial for China to gain Russia’s trust in the Arctic.

Yet China should ensure that its collaboration with Russia does not harm its relationship with other Arctic states. In dealing with relations with other Arctic countries, China should actively communicate and exchange with other Arctic countries, earnestly respect the sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction of Arctic countries, abide by the laws and regulations of Arctic countries, and regularly conduct high-level dialogue to improve political understanding and mutual trust. In addition, as an observer state of the Arctic Council, China has the right to reasonably express its views on Arctic governance, participate in and assist the development of working group projects, and hold expert-level seminars or gatherings on specific projects.11) With the help of its status as an observer state of the Arctic Council, China could actively promote the normalization work of the Arctic Council and actively coordinate cooperation between Russia and other Arctic countries in areas such as Arctic climate change, protection of Indigenous culture, scientific research, and even economic development, and promote the parties to temporarily shelve political disputes in these areas, work and develop together.

Conclusion

The impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine has spread to the Arctic region. The Arctic 7 have refused to collaborate with Russia, and the Arctic is forming a confrontation between Arctic 7 and Russia. In order to break through this predicament, Russia, which has been squeezed out by other Arctic countries, has to look to China for its Arctic cooperation. For China, Russia’s enthusiasm for Arctic cooperation is certainly a good opportunity, but China also needs to be vigilant that the deepening of its Arctic cooperation with Russia will not affect its relations with other Arctic countries. At the same time, from the perspective of long-term interests, China’s future Arctic development cannot be separated from the Arctic Council, and actively promoting the normal operation of the Arctic Council is necessary and important for China.

Chuan Chen is a PhD candidate in political science at the School of Government, Peking University, China.

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